Bihar Election Results - an analysis by Shakeel Ahmad

Bihar October Elections

Important points that must be noted for future

.. ... Read another analysis by Kashif Hoda

Laloo received an A+ grade in Chemistry, but he got an “F” Grade in Mathematics

Laloo didn't fail. Muslims failed. Nitish didn't win. Election Commission and Media won.

Q. Do you know which party received the largest chunk (percentage) of votes? So which political party is the most popular? Click here to confirm your answer.

I try to avoid wasting time on political issues, but sensitive that we are, it becomes extremely difficult to remain aloof. I am tempted to present my analysis and viewpoints because of the way our “free and fair” media has dealt with the issue. “Lalloo ka supda saaf”, “landslide for NDA”, “UPA ka bihar se safaaya”, and the many variants for a simple majority (143 out of 243) that NDA could muster after continuous attempts to safronise Bihar for over 15 years. The largest Yahoo! Group of Biharis "bihari" celebrated "Independence day" of Bihar. If gaining simple majority is a landslide victory, then what are two-third and three-fourth majorities? Many interesting and important points come out of an analysis of the whole process, some of which I would like present before the intellectuals of this group to scrutinize and take note of:

Highest success rate for Muslim contestants was achieved by JDU (44.4%) and the lowest by LJP (2.3%). Well, the situation is strange – the party with highest success rate allots the minimum percentage seats to Muslims (combined with its allies, JDU allotted just 4.1% seats to Muslims), and the party with lowest success rate allots the highest percentage of seats to Muslims

Who lost this election? RJD and allies? Even a child will agree with that. But, then, what’s the difference between children and mature people? I think mature people look at statistics to support their sayings. And a peep into the statistics throws many important points back on our faces:

The RJD’s percentage of votes in the current election didn’t go down (in comparison with February election) by even one percent means that Laloo’s charisma has not dwindled. I love to present it this way: Laloo has received an A+ grade in Chemistry (his support base is intact), but he got an “F” Grade in Mathematics (the alliance – combinations failed).

Table-1: Major Party-wise Votes percentage in Feb and Oct 2005

Alliance	%age votes (Feb-05)	%age votes (Oct-05)
RJD+	31.7%	31.0%
LJP+	14.2%	13.2%
JDU+	25.5%	36.1%

Table-2: Party-wise Votes polled in February and October 2005

Total Votes Polled	24,494,763	Feb-05	Oct-05	23,552,288
PARTY	Votes	%age of total votes (Feb05)	Votes	%age of total votes (Oct05)
BJP	2,686,290	11.0%	3,685,510	15.6%
BSP	1,080,745	4.4%	982,250	4.2%
CPI	386,236	1.6%	491,689	2.1%
CPI(ML)(L)	610,345	2.5%	559,126	2.4%
CPM	156,656	0.6%	159,906	0.7%
INC	1,223,835	5.0%	1,435,448	6.1%
IND	3,957,945	16.2%	2,064,477	8.8%
JD(U)	3,564,930	14.6%	4,819,163	20.5%
LJP	3,091,173	12.6%	2,614,106	11.1%
NCP	240,862	1.0%	186,936	0.8%
RJD	6,140,223	25.1%	5,523,482	23.5%
SP	658,791	2.7%	594,365	2.5%

If Laloo didn’t fail, who did? JDU combine? In fact, they did, because they were not able to cut Laloo’s bastion (his vote bank) by even one percent, even with the support of the whole machinery of bureaucrats controlled by election commission.
In the end, the real failure came our way. Muslims are the ones who actually were the target of all the hatred (results show it clearly). This hatred was designed for us to believe that it was against Laloo (media hype). Table-3 clearly tells us the story. The machinery seems to have succeeded in defeating maximum number of Muslim contestants of RJD. The loss suffered by Muslim contestants in October 2005 (16 seats) election as compared with February 2005 (27 seats) election is 40.7%. Only 19.4% non-Muslim RJD seats were lost in Octobr elections as compared with February election whereas 69.2% Muslim RJD seats were lost giving an indication that Muslim RJD candidates were targeted for tactical voting against them by “others”.

Table-3: Statistics related to Muslim contestants of November 2005 elections

Party	Muslim Winners (Oct05)	Total Winners (Oct05)	%age of Muslim Winners (Oct05)	Muslim Winners (Feb05)	Other Winners (Feb05)	%age of Muslim Winners (Feb05)	Gain/ Loss in seats	Remarks
RJD	4	54	7.4%	13	75	17.3%	-28.0%	Total RJD supported Muslim Winners in November 2005 are 9 against 16 Muslims in Feb2005
JDU	4	88	4.5%	4	55	7.3%	60.0%
INC	4	9	44.4%	3	10	30.0%	-10.0%
BJP	0	55	0.0%	0	37	0.0%	48.6%
NCP	1	1	100.0%	2	3	66.7%	-66.7%
LJP	1	10	10.0%	0	29	0.0%	-65.5%
BSP	0	4	0.0%	1	2	50.0%	100.0%
CPI	0	3	0.0%	1	3	33.3%	0.0%
SP	0	2	0.0%	1	4	25.0%	-50.0%
CPM	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0.0%	0.0%
CPI- ML	1	5	20.0%	1	7	14.3%	-28.6%
Ind.	1	11	9.1%	1	17	5.9%	-35.3%
Total	16	243	6.6%	27	243	11.1%	-40.7%

There was a rush for parties to award tickets to Muslims, this time as well. LJP scored the highest with 43 candidates matched by RJD only when combined with its allies (RJD: 27 out of 175 total contested seats; INC: 12 out of 51 + NCP: 4 out of 8).
Highest success rate for Muslim contestants was achieved by JDU (44.4%) and the lowest by LJP (2.3%). Well, the situation is strange – the party with highest success rate allots the minimum percentage seats to Muslims (combined with its allies, JDU allotted just 4.1% seats to Muslims), and the party with lowest success rate allots the highest percentage of seats to Muslims (Refer Table-4).

Table-4: Allocation of seats to Muslim candidates (major parties)

Party	Muslim Winners (Oct05)	Muslim contestants (Oct05)	Success Rate of Muslim Contestants (Oct05)	Total seats contested	%age seats allotted to Muslims
RJD	4	27	14.8%	175	15.4%
JDU	4	9	44.4%	139	6.5%
INC	4	12	33.3%	51	23.5%
BJP	0	1	0.0%	102	1.0%
NCP	1	4	25.0%	8	50.0%
LJP	1	43	2.3%	203	21.2%

FAIRNESS OF ELECTION COMMISSION:

(a) Many issues have already been raised by the RJD combined (although conveniently neglected by media), like selective arrest of RJD candidates and their supporters, scaring candidates and their supporters away from election campaigning using legal as well as illegal course of action – one illegal course of action that was seen by the whole world was the ruthless beating of a federal minister’s (Jaiprakash Yadav’s – number two in Laloo’s kingdom) own brother (he was a RJD candidate); which provision of the IPC authorizes the police to parade someone through the streets and beating him in public? This was done right in the first phase of polling, to send a message to all RJD contestants and their supporters. Another such illegal act, publicized widely by the media, was a non-bailable warrant issued against M.A. Fatmi – federal HRD minister – who was charged for campaigning after the official closing of campaign period; four vehicles that were confiscated were standing in front of his house where he was relaxing; were his vehicles campaigning in front of his house. The police had to withdraw the case after a lot of hungama which the media never highlighted. Maximum number of such cases (violation of model code of conduct) were filed against the RJD candidates (including Laloo) and their supporters.

(b) Why were the elections scheduled in Ramadan? This question will haunt the people for the next 5 years. Protests from RJD went unheeded. It’s easy to talk against the intentions of election commission by simply raising the point of inconvenience that fasting Muslims faced in coming out to vote. All the festivals were considered when planning the phases of election, except the Ramadan. I don’t know what excuse was given by the election commission in support of their decision, but a stunning statistics that supports our belief that the two phases planned during the Ramadan were not just to cause inconvenience to Muslim voters, but to cause maximum damage to RJD. You don’t believe me? I don’t just talk, I will support this by presenting statistics that doesn’t seem to be just coincidence. Out of the 75 seats won by RJD in February 2005 election, number of constituencies falling in first two phases of November election (during Ramadan) are 45 against 30 that were kept for the post-Ramadan phases. Just a coincidence, or planned in a way to cause maximum damage?

Table-5: Muslim Winners in October 2005 election

Constituency	Winner	Party
Barsoi	MUNNAF ALAM	CPI(ML)(L)
Sikta	KHURSHED ALIAS FIROZ ALAM	INC
Bahadurganj	MD. TOUSIF ALAM	INC
Amour	ABDUL JALIL MASTAN	INC
Manihari	MUBARAK HUSSAIN	INC
Baisi	SYED RUKNUDIN	IND
Pupri	SHAHID ALI KHAN	JD(U)
Balia	JAMSHED ASRAF	JD(U)
Jokihat	MANZAR ALAM	JD(U)
Monghyr	MONAZIR HASSAN	JD(U)
Ghanshyampur	IZHAR AHMAD	LJP
Kadwa	ABDUL JALIL	NCP
Bahera	ABDUL BARI SIDDIQUI	RJD
Kishanganj	AKHATARUL IMAN	RJD
Rafiganj	MD. NEHALUDDIN	RJD
Gurua	SHAKEEL AHMAD KHAN	RJD

Muslim Winners in February 2005 election:

1. Amour ABDUL JALIL MASTAN Indian National Congress 48009

2. Bahadurganj MD. TOUSHIF ALAM Independent 43524

3. Bahera ABDUL BARI SIDDIQUI Rashtriya Janata Dal 44681

4. Baisi &nbs